Azerbaijan, Oil and Revolution m on an interpretation of the current political situation in July 2005
South Wind on the
a a driver finally beginning to show .5 25, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili to join hands with U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman to connect the Caspian Sea and the Mediterranean in Baku (Azerbaijan) m Tbilisi (Georgia) m Jie Yi Han (Turkey) oil pipeline and the opening ceremony, the Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko also with French President Jacques Chirac, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi with the opening of the Badger line sent a congratulatory message. compete on the pipeline in the Caspian Sea Russian president defeated Putin did not receive any invitation to the Azerbaijani side, the results of Putin's scheduled to attend the opening ceremony of the Special Representative for the Caspian Sea (Russia has not yet been established in Azerbaijan Ambassador) Yusuf husband because of br> can not help but the dramatic scenes in doubt, in the end is the how to deal with > Ukraine, Russia and Central Asian oil to Europe's corridors, but the two main oil line, through the Black Sea port of Odessa to ��<���� Hong Kong and through the Slovak pipeline Russian people are in control. Badger line to break into the Ukrainian energy dependence on Russia provides a unique opportunity, before the Orange Revolution, Kuchma had agreed to a consortium of investment between Russia and Germany re-Odessa m Buluo Da line, but the one Yushchenko came to power rejected the plan, said it will rebuild this route alone attract investment. Badger line opened two weeks after the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko announced that Ukraine and Kazakhstan have and Moldova, Poland reached an agreement to jointly funded reconstruction of Odessa m Buluo Da line, the new pipeline will give priority to Kazakh oil shipped abroad in Eastern Europe will also get rid of three decades of dependence on Russian oil and gas single.
Georgia before the Velvet Revolution in the United States has been promised, the United States agreed on the Badger line sections within the grid to provide all the funds and said that Tbilisi addition to transit fee, they can also get some additional oil and gas resources to protect themselves domestic demand. This is the courage of Georgia in the Russian military bases stationed on the grid and the main reason destabilize Russia. In the opening ceremony, Saakashvili said that with this pipeline, Georgia's independence to be able to get real guarantee .
According to the assessment of the U.S. Energy Development Agency, the Caspian Sea has 2000m3000 million barrels of oil can Sinotrans, the equivalent of U.S. oil consumption for 30 years. Caspian oil to international markets if the U.S. can get rid of the current single on the Persian Gulf dependence. Therefore, since 1994, the U.S. government began to actively brewing Caspian oil Sinotrans program, but the question on how to circumvent Russia's energy dominance in the region will be the oil shipped to world markets. In fact, in addition to the United States Badger lines approved by the Government, the Russian-backed Baku - Novorossiysk (Russia) line and the European consortium who are optimistic about the Baku - Supsa (Georgia) line or design whether in the capital are no less significant. But in the end geopolitical considerations took priority over geo-economic plan, as the U.S. hand-led strategic projects, pass away, high cost of the Badger line to become the final winner. the Badger line length of 1760 km, cost 45 billion U.S. dollars, the main contractor BP (BP), who confided to a senior British Russia insists Novorossiysk line due to the capital of Chechnya Ge Luozi by Neil and is considered to be a fatal weakness, however, the Moscow Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Abel, Deputy Director, actually three lines go through the conflict zone, Pakistan Jie line to go through Azerbaijan, Asia and the United States in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict Nepal, Supsa line to go through the volatile region of Abkhazia in Georgia, therefore, no lines are absolutely safe. Abel that talked about the three lines so many years, none have made progress, but in Georgia the ; color revolution also indicates that the energy game in Central Asia and the Caucasus, a new beginning. Russia lost to the south of the Caspian Sea as the center control over major energy producing areas, the possible direction in Europe and the Far East, efforts to increase business in order to some compensation.
battle of two new characters out of Russia
internal power struggle for the region has brought new opportunities, Badger lines each participating country are now hoping to replace Russia as the area of new game characters.
as Badger line terminal, Turkey had a chance to get involved in the exclusive domain of the former Soviet Union outside the high areas. Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer said in the opening ceremony of the soil will be built in Baku in 2006 funded the first ratio m Leith m Elzey Rum gas pipeline, as a complement and supplement Badger line. Turkey will become the Russia, Algeria and Norway after the fourth of natural gas deliveries to Europe countries. Ahmet Necdet Sezer said that the across the Eurasian continent, is important for Turkey, Turkey will strive to become the connection of the new Eurasian continental bridge energy.
Badger's three main oil supply line, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan could be Hope not continue to be subject to Russian oil and gas transport system, there are more opportunities to participate in international energy competition. host the ceremony, Aliyev line of Badger to be a high appraisal, said the completion of the pipeline outside the Caucasus region will to bring Badger line through to further promote the development of other sectors of Azerbaijan. According to official figures released in Baku, Aliyev to power more than two years, Azerbaijan's GDP growth has remained at ten-digit growth this year is expected to a record 18%. Aliyev also said that the ambitious, Badger line will greatly enhance the completion of Azerbaijan's national strength, thus contributing to Afghanistan ;.
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan is the only way to compete with big oil in the sea, but as Nursultan Nazarbayev said at the ceremony, the Badger line for Kazakhstan's energy export diversification strategy is also . Nursultan Nazarbayev said that Kazakhstan intends to expand the exploitation of oil and strive to reach 100 million tons in 2010, 2015, 50 million tons to reach 100 million. so much out of oil requires more transmission lines Therefore, in addition to the existing lines and newly added Haibei Badger lines, Nazarbayev said Kazakhstan will continue to build to China's 20 million tons of oil pipelines, combined with the construction of Iran and Russia The new pipeline projects are also under consideration.
and other guests attending the ceremony is different is that Nazar Paya at the ceremony and offered no kind words for big Badger line. Azerbaijan, a senior who to the Russian Er Baye by the U.S. does not give the oil in Transcaucasia and Central Asia to bring stability and prosperity, on the contrary, creating a unique family of the region's authoritarian-style rule system. Cagliari Young that the fundamental reason is that the oil industry's profit distribution system to match still the same and the former Soviet Union, led all countries, from the development, marketing, distribution of profits to the last, the only difference is that the right to decide it all before in Moscow, and now in Baku, Astana and Ashgabat, in fact, that is where the hands of the ruling elite.
Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan is the largest oil producer, but its people and the poor outside the Caucasus neighbors, a long period of poverty, 70 % of the Azerbaijani people still live below the poverty line. family, derived from the rule and the resulting corruption of officials is not uncommon in this country. More importantly, Aliyev does not intend to share with their own national oil dollars, and is to compete with the rich. In his father to power of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev was the president of state oil company Socar, Azerbaijan oil development and export 95% of the things a person having the final say by him In 2003 was elected president, Ali Ye husband was also an adjunct President of Azerbaijan Oil Fund, the Foundation solely responsible for funding the project entire Badger line exchange and all revenue from oil exports of Azerbaijan, while Azerbaijan, Socar companies in the Badger line has the full 25% of the shares. < br> A domestic political opponents have accused Aliyev of oil in exchange for the sale of a large number of dollars to strengthen their rule, but never all of these should belong to the people of Azerbaijan all the money into the reconstruction of Afghanistan in China's old industrial go. to make money for the oil industry did not give Azerbaijan to create new jobs, a large number of enterprises verge of collapse, unemployment rising, the current 780 million people of Azerbaijan at least 200 million in working abroad. Thus, Azerbaijan's oil has not become national prosperity and development and, ironically, become the fuse of civil unrest. The 2003 was elected president, Ilham Aliyev's rule has been in a precarious, A Quanguo various anti-government demonstrations continued. this month, Pakistan library and the largest outbreak of Azerbaijan demonstrations over the years, the three opposition parties to follow Ukraine's asked the Administration to modify the electoral law and the current government to resign.
Aliyev, the most significant challenges facing this year is November's national parliamentary elections, the fear of the opposition who seize power through the elections in the country, Aliyev has ordered national security agencies to follow when necessary, the Uzbek opposition groups to protest against teams put down by force. However, compared to Uzbekistan, Aliyev, in addition to more important than force a card, that is Badger line behind the international consortium are. BP has invested in Azerbaijan 150 million for oil exploration and development, it shares in the Badger line has reached 30%, other issues such as Total, Statoil, Conoco-Phillipps, and Unocal have these big companies Nearly 10% of the shares, the entire project by the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction funding guarantee is just .11 Badger on all through the time line, therefore, have sufficient confidence in Aliyev that has invested in the Badger line billions of dollars in the consortium are definitely not want to see Badger lines of any origin, political unrest, threatening the safety of the operation of oil pipeline. as long as the international energy giants on his side, he have enough power to maintain their rule. Some Western observers have pointed out that because Badger line is mainly funded consortium of Western, so it is actually a disguised Aliyev government funding system, so that the big oil in the sea can assured the West from Russia and into the arms of m
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