1, what is economic development?
economic development is simply about money, but the money come from? Money can only be printed. So in the end is what makes non-stop operation of the printing press?
assuming an island with 1000 people, isolated, living among people to exchange goods, but sometimes your hand is not necessarily for the exchange of other things you want, how do? So people like to use something in exchange for gold and silver, so the exchange convenient. But gold and silver to be worn, not easy to carry, when the exchange activities between, we found that this thing is too cumbersome, limiting the exchange activities, so in order to solve this problem, think of a way, that is issued by the managers of the island a symbol , use it to replace gold and silver, so the money appeared.
beginning this money was exchanged for gold and silver at any time. We are assured, because the money is gold and silver. However, the output of gold and silver on the island is too small, when people exchange activities more frequently, not enough money, and can only suspend the exchange. The consequences of suspension of the exchange is not producing all the things other people want, because while other people use, but the exchange did not go out, to paraphrase the words of the current economic slowdown is a.
so it was thought out a way to set up a banking house, the banks are all by the banks to issue bank notes, printed money to lend money to people who want to use, and then money and then returned to the person banks. So banks have emerged.
banks will appear and can ensure a more sustainable exchange activities carried out, we all out of production, more and more things on the island, the number of banks in accordance with the production, stop printing money to ensure that conduct more in-depth exchange.
activity was more frequent exchange of people, and a few banks, so there have been many banks, there must be a pipe banks in it, then specify the management of other banks, a banking house, and the money only by this family banking house printing, and then through other banks who lend money, the government also appeared on such banks.
2, what is foreign trade?
invented the island one day, the boat, so the boat to run around and found another island, that some people above, there are notes, so the island like their own activities. But they produce many things on the island, the island produced something less, a dollar can buy in their own island, 1 kg of rice, the island's only a dollar to buy half a jin of rice, so the additional money to the island When to buy the island for only 2 yuan 1 yuan Caixing. So the exchange rate has emerged. Considered a good rate, they began trading with each other things to each other on the island, which is foreign trade. Foreign trade enriched people's life and production needs, so that exchange activity to an unprecedented climax.
3, what is inflation?
products because too many on the island that can not accurately estimate how much money in the end the issue, issuing more time, because there are so many products to buy, product prices began to issue less of it began to cut prices in order to ensure price stability, the central bank requires all banks make money on the part of the central bank which is used to adjust product prices, according to the price situation and less extra place. This is the deposit reserve ratio.
But some smart people how to start their own hands to get the money, he picked up a stone in the sea, saying that the value of 100 million quick stones, sold it to a person, this person feel that the entire island with no money plus 100 million, ah, how to do, so to moneylenders, banks are not so much money, so the printing press opened, printed the 100 million lent he bought the stones .
then began to sell the stones of this, 100 million sold a second person, as the first stone of the people to spend money to sell, so the island's more money, so that millions can be raised , buy some products have a. But this stone to the transfer of 200 million, when banks only and printed 100 million bank notes, so the more money the more Indian, but when the stone kept the flow of transfer, the more money we do not think the island , as product prices or the original. But when the stone does not flow or circulation is slow, you think more money, but if and when the person holds a stone thrown into the sea it, it equal to nothing out of the island more than 100 million to N, how do , the central bank's most afraid of is the Fengyun stone gone. It is not the island product prices will soar, will inflation. Then the person who held kidnapped stones in the island's economy.
4, house prices could kidnap the Chinese economy?
China's real estate has made a lot of China's central bank issued RMB, and if house prices fall, is equivalent to that stone dropped into the sea, so much money to print out the price of Chinese products will soar, will serious inflation.
prices and stones appear to have no coherent, but their properties are the same, that is, a serious departure from the price and value. In fact the biggest victims of the collapse of real estate is not China's commercial banks, but the entire Chinese economy. Why the Government has yet to put prices down, not cut down, if you really want to drop prices, just a decree, the real estate prices will collapse overnight. But who can bear the consequences of serious inflation, who is responsible?
real estate industry has kidnapped the Chinese economy is no doubt, is the objective reality, no one can change.
no matter who is prime minister, clean Ye Hao, corruption, it is all hope of social harmony, but this is a difficult problem.
5, house prices and inflation related?
can be more difficult problem is more here. If the lower prices, faced with inflation immediately, do not drop prices, then the face is more inflation, what next?
So the most reliable way is to stabilize housing prices and increases in the social product, reduce the amount of money supply, coupled with other policies such as raising interest rates, increase in commercial bank reserve ratio, reducing the size of credit and other aids , to make a soft landing for the Chinese economy, this is the best way, we see that this logic is all the decree. Do not believe, you can access to what in recent years, the Government issued a series of measures to control the real estate industry.
But why the soaring house prices and more unstable it? Is the game developers and the government do? Tell you that no one in China and destabilize the party, several major points of the stomach is not the strength of the developer. Is actually a black hand behind the other game in and the Chinese government, this black hand that is foreign to the U.S. imperialist grab for the Chinese people on behalf of the blood and sweat of the black hand.
6, what is the driving force behind rising prices?
power to make a lot of housing prices, housing prices is the driving force in his favor, one person, such as: GDP and personal interests to local government, in order to make money for developers, real estate family, so that bought a house in the so-called
developers as a businessman, in order to earn high profits is not a wicked thing, but all walks of life have businessmen, do not want to make there is it? Unless it is a myth. Real estate developers, too, not that they want to make the number of how many there are. According to the law of value when the commodity prices and the value of a serious departure from the time, there will be a tendency to force the return of normal price Qianzhi prices, but in China's real estate industry, this law seems to not work, one important reason is neglect of a reference range of reasons, the Chinese economy itself, if indeed broken the law, but the current situation is that there is a force in the maintenance of the real estate prices, that is, prop up the market, then who is to shore up the market? Who in the real estate
to get huge profits out of control person who is propping up the market.
discuss this issue, now look at China's foreign exchange reserves. China's foreign exchange reserves rapidly in recent years a breakthrough by the 1,2 billion trillion, and is growing rapidly, is it the Chinese people work hard, earned it? This does not need proof, look at China's GDP growth rate, we know that foreign exchange reserves significantly greater than the growth rate of GDP growth. Clearly not earned, then in addition to a part of earned, then the so-called
international hot money into China market, we must first be converted into yuan, then how can there suddenly so many yuan it? Only one way is to let the printing presses day and night work, and then the money is used for boosting the hot potato of the real estate market is desperate for investment in real estate, when the value of real estate prices down due to deviate from fluctuations, then it is elevated by propping up the market, repeated that, giving the appearance that the price must not deviate from the value of the property. Lead to higher house prices rose more.
the developers do, they get to the house will not sell the time, it was the nose down, how they will cut prices, if not this part of the funds in the operation, not to mention the developer Union, is Only one national developer, the price will come down, no one bought the house do so moldy it?
it holds so many high-priced real estate foreign investors to do? Not afraid to hit hands?
not afraid! Why? In the process of capital operation, there is a suckers at the bottom then it is who? Commercial Bank of China, the hot real estate market,UGG shoes, first-class liquidity, decline in recent years have not seen any signs, put the loan on the profit, why not loans? No reason to hold loans.
coupled with the feelings of the Chinese people to buy a house, foreign investment can easily be passed on to the Gaojiefang Chinese banks and consumers, and even real estate can earn a share of the farmers, foreign investors will lose money do professional?
then house prices have been going up, what will happen? See the next section: Chamber of Commerce whether to laugh or cry? Under what circumstances will laugh? Under what circumstances cry?
intensive in recent years, dozens of China under the control of gold, prices, or if off the reins of the horse bolted more than the same. Putting aside the time to stop the momentum of rise, after all, is still rising house prices, so we will see more than what housing prices.
First of all: the GDP rose above that of China in order to maintain the Not as long as the stone of real estate into the open sea, there are some liquidity, then there would be no inflation occurs.
Second: the developer is also in the process earn huge profits. Again: to see that the real estate group will make money, buy a house so-called
are making money! But in the end who is in the process lose it? The money come from? If you have a stock of experience will know, if the investment away from the commodity price and value, you lose money is someone else's money, then applied to real estate, that is, people who buy their own homes, and now appears to value-added, It was on the mirror, Stronghold, you do not realize it is not you. There is also the true value when prices return to full time, sometimes even to the true value of what was 高价房 captive investors. Another is the developer!
Why do developers have to lose money? We all know the nature of business to make money, make a profit. If the speculation once a businessman never do this business, he is making money, but he is not a business, this does not make sense business practices. Because the nature of business, so the money earned will continue to expand production in the field can continue to make money to invest. This principle can be seen from the life, the more big business is always on call money, due to the greater flow of funds to maintain its expanded reproduction needs.
so once prices return to the real value is that when the day of the collapse of a large number of developers. This is not the will of any person and any act for the transfer. If you now have fled the real estate arena developer, then Paode Man is the final loser. If you do not run, pass like a flower like drumming, and finally got the baton is then set those. There is a saying: Maybe just a different way, just to see who's lucky.
but now the developer does not have any signs of losing money, some developers continue to make money, people give money too late. Just because the current prices are still rising, real estate also continued to flow.
a huge problem here, so when prices are rising head ah, see the following section: blood and sweat , to achieve their evil purpose. It is true they did not have so arrogant arrogance, but they do in the event with. The concept of equality is right, but it is only imperialist trick to deceive people fills said and done will always be two different things.
international consortium through the international hot money into China, the renminbi to increase circulation, and through real estate speculation, China's domestic price level to an unlimited increase, GDP growth in circulation once again to make the yuan was force increased. Blackhand ruthless international consortium heart, two-pronged approach is designed to make China's economy to the hot heat, heat to let the crazy people of every Chinese. We will not to care about this process, we look to the future and see the results of this process is like? In other words, the purpose of the consortium is it?
Obviously, the Chinese people are most reluctant to see things that are most pleased to see the results of the consortium. Be the first hypothesis, such as international hot money in the investment of Chinese real estate staging area after the last mad, then get out of trouble all the successful realization of real estate, if the exchange rate of renminbi against the dollar at this time to achieve the highest expected the United States, the exchange rate is when the hot money to flee need to multiply that times, what happens anyone can think of, all the hot money will flee U.S. dollar overnight and all. Consortium, we will earn ditch full of trench level, the Chinese market, but money is money that can cover a lot of days, the renminbi will become a nightmare for the Chinese people.
This is the Chinese people are most reluctant to see things, is most pleased to see the results of the consortium. Recently the United States continued through political, trade and other means to force the appreciation of the RMB, and China does not appreciate or slow the appreciation of small-scale, far from the U.S. government's expectations, this is the exit of the game between China and the U.S.. Criminal intent to force the United States all too clear appreciation of the renminbi!
Incidentally, if we really reached the expected appreciation of the Chinese property market in Japan will be repeated collapse of the last century, the history of 90 years. But at that time will be like Japan, China's economy into a continuous slump of no return.
9, at about this price and inflation around the game between the parties may choose the mean line
I have always believed: extremes meet, moderation is after our ancestors left people solve difficult problems killer! Since it is a Chinese real estate
What is
Let's take a look at both sides of the line and kidnapped their own hands the chips. Main body of the real estate industry developers, so developers operator side, it is vital kidnapped Chinese economy, and that the crucial point of the Chinese economy who is it? The crucial point of the Chinese people, on behalf of the Chinese people, now only the Chinese government. The Chinese government considered a party. Foreign investment it? It is to fan the flames were zoned to the developer side. Chinese Government Fangyou Gong power, through tax, financial, economic policies, administrative means to force developers to camp, camp by a steady stream of developers to reserve funds to kidnap the Chinese economy, and continuously improve the ransom.
problem has been put in here, how to do it? Rushed to the shot and killed, and that non-criminals threatened to kill is not too extreme feasible. Therefore, the Government promising a prescription, as long as one can achieve a certain idea of lower prices, as if shot dead, like this is not feasible. Imagine how we save kidnapping, first to stabilize each other's emotional lives, and then step by step close, but close to, although this will cause hostility criminals, but will not cause him threatened to kill, and then further stabilize mood, and then close, then When conditions are ripe, and then steady Accurate, that is, to ensure the safety of the hostages, but also to ensure that criminals winning. This is the real rescue.
solutions to difficult problems so moderation is the killer. Extreme, blind, aggressive is undesirable.
for Chinese real estate market, how to solve the abduction issue, we should focus on a key part of the problem step by step to impose a reaction force, and successful, is the right way.
first key part is the exchange rate, China will strictly control the exchange rate relations, we can expect that the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar appreciation will never be too fast, but small appreciation, is to stabilize each other's emotions If that does not rise, they will cornered, if the rise too fast, is to dig their own grave, so why the increase in China's exchange rate is always still holds partly concealed, with a look at the attitude of the United States how the relevance of the kidnappers, I To a bottle of fruit juice, why bring half a bottle of water. What can and can not tell, after all, being able to quench their thirst.
second key is to limit the liquidity of assets, since the real estate to kidnap the Chinese economy, that it is important to limit the liquidity of real estate, you can limit the liquidity of assets, pay attention here are two concepts, Liquidity The two are completely different, but closely related. Weakening real estate liquidity, reduced liquidity, you need to print yuan to decrease. Just as the stone, does not flow right away inflation, price increases circulation without no problem, but does not work, foreign investment does not agree. Since it is constantly rising price of real estate can only restrict the flow step by step, as long as the property less liquidity, inflation will show a little, and then through the reserve ratio increases and interest rates and other flexible policies to adjust the point, with willow cotton silk palm to resolve a Tyson punch, just to soft and Keqiang,UGG boots cheap, of crushing the invisible, which is China's strategy (which is like the Chinese do best.) We can see from the official media related news, the property market signing rate is declining, that decline in liquidity, and prices began to rise, such as pork and other staple food products, but once the central bank raised the reserve ratio and interest rates to price stability. Tell me what you do not know whether to see some clues. Can be expected that, to fully resolve the crisis, will continue to raise interest rates and raise the reserve ratio, and liquidity of real estate will become increasingly weak, this prediction is accurate in the future central bank policy verification. Such as complete elimination of economic overheating due to inflation expectations, then that is the true value of real estate when prices return.
not see whether you can see, this is the last crazy, we analyzed two ways:
First, if this game ended in victory for foreign investment, then the Chinese economy Japan will step into the abyss of 90 years continues to decline, due to withdrawal of foreign capital, the survival of the pillars of the housing market collapse, prices will plummet, whether it is available when the developer or the people will bear the pain of economic downturn, currency held by the rapid depreciation, even if house prices fall, not necessarily to buy from. This is unacceptable and the Chinese people, and it is unacceptable.
Second, if foreign investors ended in failure, that is, keeping guard at the exchange rate on exports, so that prices return to the true value, the same set of foreign investment in China, this is the prerequisite of victory. So the consortium led by the United States who will hemophagocytic crazy imperialist government retaliation in investment, exports and other parties to put pressure on the face of China. Today, we did not meet U.S. expectations of RMB appreciation, China's exports to the United States has led to products subject to suppression, thereby causing a large number of trade friction, is obvious. We know that the troika of economic development is investment, exports and consumption, investment, export sector retaliation will affect China's economic development, but I believe our development will not affect the speed, do not forget there is a carriage is Ngau Tau engine.
Second, the circumstances surrounding the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis
I believe that for many people who do not understand the economy, although this time sweeping the world familiar to U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, but its cause and effect is not very clear, do not know why would affect our country. Today I use the most simple language, there is no economic basis for the general public to talk about, so it may superficial and simplistic. For professionals, the back of the subprime mortgage crisis and the economic crisis that may occur is a systematic and complex research projects, so that the experts should not be too picky!
To sort out this global financial crisis, to Former U.S. President Bill Clinton was in power from when the start. Clinton in office to take a liberal economic policy, the U.S. economy is in a good momentum of development. Economic prosperity will inevitably bring about the development of some industries and sectors, and in all industries, the real estate industry is also the most critical of the rapid development of housing prices skyrocketed.
real estate business for expansion, improve performance, to promote through various channels to the bright future of the real estate market and to encourage people to buy a house. One day a kind of real estate prices, rising rapidly. Therefore, in the first wave of rising prices, the rich people first of all put the direction of real estate as their investment. Housing prices and the behavior of these people are crazy to buy another stimulus, the more people buy, prices have gone up faster, there is speculation the more purchasers. As a result, house prices rose so straight, and in the economy, but also flowers, very nice!
The United States is very particular about personal economic credit of the country, so even the middle class can not be unlimited to the bank in loans to buy a house. Reach a certain degree, the real estate industry put those who have capital and are willing to put into the real estate industry to plunder the rich people over and over. But the rising trend in house prices has given way to business people dog eat dog, everyone in the afternoon how good preaching has not brake the car, so we must look for new real estate buying groups! Then there who can buy it? taking a closer look, there are a great group of poor people's houses and watch helplessly drooling it!
so the real estate business on the eye to the poor. Although the United States is a developed country where the poor can be a little less. If you make this group of people to buy, how much it would be a big market ah. However, the vast majority of them live in government provided cheap room, life is as difficult, and what means to buy it? A profit, there is the so-called countermeasures, single-minded real estate to make these people joined force in the purchase of crazy, so the combination of policies introduced!
first is to find advertising agencies and marketing companies, with the media, experts frantically packing and brag about,Discount UGG boots, let everyone think as long as the house of a hand to can make money; Second, mortgage, and reduce the down payment. 40% down payment from the previous adjustment to 30%, and then reduced step by step, because it is a first that a bit of money to the lie came to say. Finally adjusted to 10%, ah? Also take no? Well, no matter, as long as you want to buy, as long as you are willing to buy, as long as you dare to buy, no money, I'll give you pad down payment, two years later back to me on the line ... ...
once those poor ignorant: there is so good? have a house for nothing, but still kept the real estate value, which do not fall in your lap? to mention two years of repayment period, perhaps two years, or perhaps make a fortune during the walk Goushi Yun; if not fortune, two years after the price rise did not know how much to sell time, not in vain Jianqian it! Thus, a large number of poor people have begun to buy a house.
persuade the poor to buy a house is the real estate agency, but it is the bank to provide loans. Huan'd sell the house now, but after all, the poor are poor, for the banks, these people not only that there is no credit basis. And almost no credit guarantee! How to do two years or poor? Not a loan how to do? Therefore, the bank began to think of ways out of these risk transfer.
the best way, but also bank access way is the design of these bad loans into bonds. Bank of America's debt is in the usual sense of the financial bonds, credit rating is divided. Those But, as said before, the poor no credit basis and loan guarantees, loans provided to them at particularly high risk, low-grade loans are, that subprime loans in the usual sense, simply did not sell! How to do it?
so those banks will target the investment banks, investment companies and investment funds above. In the U.S., various investment funds and investment banks a lot, but basically private. These institutions for investment over the world, where the proceeds go to another job where Ben. These guys earn any money Dugan, Dugan received any money, and said plainly, is gambling, in order to high-margin, high return and willing to take high risk. Therefore, many such institutions in each of collapse, and every year there are many such organizations to set up.
a result, investment banks and investment funds are like banks can not sell these institutions to buy the subordinated bonds. Banks can be happy: his can finally sit back and relax, the risk borne by the suckers, gang of opportunists headaches later to go!
Are secretly pleased, no commitment to, with the continuing hot real estate market, those who agencies actually so huge profits! Bank intestines regret blue, and quickly find ways to fight for a piece, so they staged a special insurance for those agencies. You are not buying high-risk subprime bonds it? As long as you buy our insurance, risk is reduced. This is for those who venture capital institutions, of course! They Zhengchou too risky to do these bonds, a bank-guaranteed, almost cried, so enthusiastically insured. So that banks and from them to make money! Seems everyone is making money, they have had to bear the risk, very fair, very reasonable!
To earn more money, the U.S. bankers, investors, speculation Think of a house and they use the money earned in front of a guarantee, set up a high-risk funds. After the establishment of this fund, with enterprises as the leading real estate development, just as China's funds, sold very fire, crush De rob people! Which also includes our country and other countries, some banks! O, not , and so many banks, so many government agencies, so many experts in the buying,UGG bailey button, selling fund completely crazy ... ...
unlimited if prices can rise, if the bad loans that no payment period. So, this madness can still continue. However, the reality is the reality, the price of the house there is certainly a high point, the high point is to go buy a house the poor but also flicker, and then find people to buy a house. This time, sell the house, the poor repayment period is to it! Big trouble coming ... ...
poor to buy a house down payment, whether it is 10% or higher, are speculative and investment by those who advanced by institutions, the interest generated every day. Both banks or investment institutions, all lending their motives are to make money. They are gambling a few years ago, gambling within two years of these poor people can Poor or poor, house prices continue to rise not only failed, but started to decline. This time the banks and various investment institutions are beginning to do nothing, they can not put the house back, because back to also sell, but also depreciating. So banks and investment institutions began the rapid loss!
In such cases, they are still advocating how the real estate market outlook is good, let those who have not been completely drained of the guys put money out, for their own escape. But it was too late! The hands of junk bonds Chengle too cute, so banks, venture capital, insurance companies, including participation of the subprime loans and bonds, all institutions, collective finished!
< br> And that the circumstances surrounding the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. U.S. banks and investment institutions bankrupt one by one, this is just the first step, the next will likely face an even greater crisis, mainly because the process in the real estate boom, many institutions and individuals regard the extra money into the the industry. Simply put, a person to spend several hundred thousand to buy a house, if he had bank mortgage loan, then he is bound to reduce the cost of other aspects to ensure their balance of payments. Therefore, the more hot real estate market, the more will reduce the demand for other commodities. Reduced market demand, will reduce the size of some industries, it will take to reduce production, cut staff and other follow-up. With the soaring real estate prices coupled with the false economic indicators brought up, prices will rise with the cost of raw materials will rise. Excessive speculation in the real estate market, will inevitably bring about a false prosperity of other industries, leading to more and more people unemployed, less and less income, more and more not sell products, then followed the closure of some businesses, close, real The economic crisis kicked off the official ... ...
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